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April 21st, 2008

Note From The Housing Bubble…

Atrios writes…

This somewhat anecdotal stuff rankles my inner social scientist, but perhaps things are changing a bit.

Economists say home prices are no where near hitting bottom. But even in regions that have taken a beating, some neighborhoods remain practically unscathed. And there’s a pattern emerging as to which neighborhoods those are.

The ones with short commutes are fairing better than places with long drives into the city. Some analysts see a pause in what’s long been inexorable—urban sprawl.

Realtor Danilo Bogdanovic surveyed two rows of neat new brick town homes on Falkner’s Lane. "These were selling for about $550,000 at the peak, which was about August 05, and they’re selling right now for about $350,000," Bogdanovic said."So $200,000 in a year and a half and fifty 50 of this community has been ether foreclosed on or is facing foreclosure.

For residents who work in the city, their commute is around an hour on trouble-free days. But that could extend upward toward two hours very quickly.

But construction in town has held steady. Goldberg sees other cities rebounding too, including Baltimore and Philadelphia."Philadelphia was loosing downtown housing and in town housing until very recently," Goldberg said. "And now that’s the hottest part of their market."

That’s my experience so far here in Baltimore.  In the neighborhood I live in, the houses going up for sale still don’t stay on the market for more then a few weeks.  Prices aren’t soaring like they once were…if anything they’ve gone down a tad.  But just a tad.  Prices are still more then double what they were seven years ago.

I can walk to work from where I live.  For most folks here in my neighborhood who work in the city, the commute can’t be too bad because we’re close to I-83 which goes right into the heart of downtown Baltimore.  The Light rail is nearby too.

Traffic congestion plus the rising cost of gas is already having an effect.  The housing market collapse isn’t happening where people can live close to where they work, or close to rail transport.  One of the biggest booming housing markets in Baltimore, still is around Penn Station.  Which just also happens to be close to our gay neighborhood too. 

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