So…Who’s Ahead In The Republican Primaries…?
Not McCain. Not Huckabee.
Via Brad DeLong…
Mitt Romney Is Ahead in the Republican Race
Matthew Yglesias points out that Mitt Romney is ahead in delegates:
I saw some sentiment on TV last night that Michigan is must win for Romney, but I don’t really see it that way. Second place finishes are survivable for Romney as long as different people are beating him in different places and as long as he keeps picking up delegates. The GOP side has more winner-take-all primaries than does the Democratic side and, clearly, you can’t lose all of those. But basically while Romney’s not in good shape, he’s in at least okay shape.
I strongly doubt it’s going to be McCain. It’s either Romney or Huckabee. My guess is that Huckabee will take it. They won’t trust Romney as much as they’ll trust Huckabee. All those church buses full of primary voters the movement conservatives have been using to keep the moderate wing of the GOP on the outside looking in…? They’re going to run their own damn candidate this year, and to hell with what the establishment wants them to do. After all…it’s their party now…
[Update…] Looks like this was yet another Milt Romney ad-hoc rewrite of the facts…
Why is the former Massachusetts governor telling folks that he leads in delegates?
In Boston today, Romney told supporters, "we have more delegates than any other Republican candidate running for president."
Here’s the ABC News GOP Delegate Estimate:
Huckabee – 31
Romney – 19
McCain – 7
Thompson – 3
Hunter – 1
Giuliani – 0
Paul – 0According to my pal, ABC News’ John Berman, the count the Romney folks have is:
Romney – 15
McCain – 12
Thompson – 3
Huckabee – 2
Hunter – 1
Giuliani – 0
Paul – 0Explains Berman, "the way they are doing this is by simply not counting Iowa. They say that Iowa’s delegates are not technically committed through the caucus process, and so, instead of extrapolating how the delegates would be apportioned (which is what media, such as ABC News and the Associated Press, do) they just pretend like Iowa did not happen."
Right. Like he’s pretending all those nice things he said about gay equality while he was governor of Massachusetts didn’t happen…
January 10th, 2008 at 5:39 am
It ain’t over till the fat elephant sings. Who knows what will happen with the cast of clowns they have this time around. Really it is a bizarre and losing bunch all around. I would be most concerned if Giuliani ran. I lived in NY pre-911 and he ruled the city like a tyrant.
January 10th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
Yeah. Of all the republican candidates, Giuliani frightens some people the most, considering how much power Bush has asserted into the presidency. I think they’re all scary in that regard…except perhaps McCain. But you just know that Giuliani is going to do with power once he gets it.