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April 29th, 2020

Ominous Signs In The Data

This from the New York Times came across my screen this morning…

U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported, C.D.C. Data Suggests

Total deaths in seven states that have been hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic are nearly 50 percent higher than normal for the five weeks from March 8 through April 11, according to new death statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That is 9,000 more deaths than were reported as of April 11 in official counts of deaths from the coronavirus.

The new data is partial and most likely undercounts the recent death toll significantly. But it still illustrates how the coronavirus is causing a surge in deaths in the places it has struck, probably killing more people than the reported statistics capture.

Since our testing capabilities are basically maybe a half-step about non-existent then…yeah…this is almost certainly the case. Go read the whole thing. The included graphs alone tell an alarming story. 

Some of this increase may be due to people just not going in, or not able to get in, to their health care providers for things that arise and then they get fatally worse. But that should be balanced out by a much lower rate of traffic fatalities, and the sort of accidents that happen outside the home. The fact is we don’t even know how many of us have or had the virus. We’re flailing around in the dark here. But this is ominous.

 

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