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April 29th, 2020

Ominous Signs In The Data

This from the New York Times came across my screen this morning…

U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported, C.D.C. Data Suggests

Total deaths in seven states that have been hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic are nearly 50 percent higher than normal for the five weeks from March 8 through April 11, according to new death statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That is 9,000 more deaths than were reported as of April 11 in official counts of deaths from the coronavirus.

The new data is partial and most likely undercounts the recent death toll significantly. But it still illustrates how the coronavirus is causing a surge in deaths in the places it has struck, probably killing more people than the reported statistics capture.

Since our testing capabilities are basically maybe a half-step about non-existent then…yeah…this is almost certainly the case. Go read the whole thing. The included graphs alone tell an alarming story. 

Some of this increase may be due to people just not going in, or not able to get in, to their health care providers for things that arise and then they get fatally worse. But that should be balanced out by a much lower rate of traffic fatalities, and the sort of accidents that happen outside the home. The fact is we don’t even know how many of us have or had the virus. We’re flailing around in the dark here. But this is ominous.

 

by Bruce | Link | Comments Off on Ominous Signs In The Data

April 22nd, 2020

How COVID-19 Gets A Silent Start On You

There has been talk for a while now about asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19. This New York Times article came across my Facebook stream the other day and it contains within it an understanding of how that might be…

The Infection That’s Silently Killing Coronavirus Patients

Even patients without respiratory complaints had Covid pneumonia. The patient stabbed in the shoulder, whom we X-rayed because we worried he had a collapsed lung, actually had Covid pneumonia. In patients on whom we did CT scans because they were injured in falls, we coincidentally found Covid pneumonia. Elderly patients who had passed out for unknown reasons and a number of diabetic patients were found to have it.

And here is what really surprised us: These patients did not report any sensation of breathing problems, even though their chest X-rays showed diffuse pneumonia and their oxygen was below normal. How could this be?

Read this article if you read nothing else today about the virus! Apparently due to the way the virus invades the lungs you don’t notice any discomfort for a while, as you would in the usual course of a pneumonia infection. But doctors can see it when they measure the amount of oxygen in your blood. That’s the tell that something is wrong with your lung functioning.

There are simple inexpensive devices you can buy at the pharmacy or online to measure blood O2. I bought one of these after I had the heart attack last October, along with a home device for measuring blood pressure. There are also, so I’m told, clever smartphone apps that use the built-in light. Normal O2 should be between 95 and 100 percent as taken from one of these.

Stay safe people…

 

by Bruce | Link | Comments Off on How COVID-19 Gets A Silent Start On You

April 20th, 2020

This Thing Is A Nightmare…

From Science Magazine. In case you’re still in doubt about how dangerous this new virus is…have a read…

How does coronavirus kill? Clinicians trace a ferocious rampage through the body, from brain to toes

As the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 surges past 2.2 million globally and deaths surpass 150,000, clinicians and pathologists are struggling to understand the damage wrought by the coronavirus as it tears through the body. They are realizing that although the lungs are ground zero, its reach can extend to many organs including the heart and blood vessels, kidneys, gut, and brain.

“[The disease] can attack almost anything in the body with devastating consequences,” says cardiologist Harlan Krumholz of Yale University and Yale-New Haven Hospital, who is leading multiple efforts to gather clinical data on COVID-19. “Its ferocity is breathtaking and humbling.”

Go read the rest. This new virus is the stuff of nightmares. If you ever find yourself getting frustrated with the quarantine…and I know I do from time to time…read it again. Then go wash your hands and rededicate yourself to safe distancing, and staying home unless it’s absolutely necessary to go anywhere.

by Bruce | Link | Comments Off on This Thing Is A Nightmare…


Disturbing Echos Of The Past

This came across my Facebook news stream this morning…

 

A friend posted this with a comment about how it reminded him of that iconic photograph of the solitary Chinese man standing in front of a line of tanks during the Tiananmen Square massacre. And if you think that’s hyperbole recall how in Charlottesville Virginia a neo fascist drove right into a crowd of people peacefully protesting the Unite The Right rally there killing one and injuring 28. These were more of Trump’s Very Fine People in those cars.

These healthcare workers were risking their lives here. Which, yes, they do anyway. But they shouldn’t have to do it like this.

by Bruce | Link | Comments Off on Disturbing Echos Of The Past

April 4th, 2020

Keeping An Open Mind About It

After the heart attack, the cardiologist told me it was normal to be worried that every tiny little twitch and odd feeling in my chest was a precursor to another one. Everyone feels that way he said.

So now we have a plague virus that in some ways acts initially like a cold or flu. And every little sneeze, runny nose, dryness of throat and cough, makes you wonder…is this it? And oh by the way, it’s allergy season here in lovely central Maryland.

Also, I was informed recently that one or more of my daily heart meds can cause dry coughs as a side effect.

I keep thinking these days more than others about something I read long ago in one of Bill Mauldin’s books. He’s one of my heros of the political cartoon form, served in WWII and is known most of all for his Willie and Joe cartoons. I can’t find the exact passage just now, but he related how during his service in WWII he’d asked an infantryman once how he handled the constant stress of being on the front line and knowing he might take a bullet at any moment. The man said the trick was keeping an open mind about it. He told Mauldin that if you became certain you were going to die, or certain you would make it out alive, you’d probably end up doing something stupid and then getting yourself killed and maybe everyone around you too.

So…that advice from a man in the worst sort of harm’s way, keeping an open mind about it, keeps tapping me on the shoulder whenever I start getting anxious about anything. It may seem strange, but it’s what I kept in mind way back when I was interviewing for my first real job as a software developer for Baltimore Gas and Electric way back when. I had no degree and no expectation that it would amount to anything at all. Surely there were lots of other better qualified people than I competing for this position. But I went through with it keeping an open mind about it, and to my complete surprise it paid off. And now here I am.

Keeping an open mind about it every cough, every runny nose, every sneeze. It is allergy season after all. There is too much uncertainty now, but there are things the experts generally agree work and are preventative. Those recommendations keep getting updated so we have to keep paying attention to the latest updates. Just don’t get fatalistic about it in either direction. That isn’t helpful to you or anyone else.

by Bruce | Link | Comments Off on Keeping An Open Mind About It

March 29th, 2020

We Can Do It!

Via Tom Tomorrow. Lotsa WWII Posters about travel and rationing and pitching in at the home front are suddenly getting dusted off and shown…

 

Now just replace the photo next to the fan with one of a son or daughter in scrubs and you have a COVID-19 poster.

by Bruce | Link | Comments Off on We Can Do It!

March 22nd, 2020

Tales From The Plague…(continued)

My car is a diesel, a Very Nice three litre V-6 bi-turbo Mercedes-Benz diesel sedan. I bought it for their legendary longevity and fuel economy, which is nice for road tripping. But diesels don’t like being parked and not running for very long. Last time I let that happen when I did take it out it threw a check engine light and went into a kind of limp mode, that I was able to trace to a possibly stuck exhaust gas recirculation valve. After driving it a while the problem went away and hasn’t returned. Since I live within walking distance of work, and to most everything I need on a day to day basis, not letting the car sit for extended periods is something I have to manage. Usually that’s a nice weekend day long pleasure drive in the countryside. Now that we all need to stay indoors as much as possible due to COVID-19 that’s not really do-able.

The car has been sitting since last Tuesday afternoon when I took my house sitter to the train station for his return home. So today I figured I’d take it for just a short drive up I-83 to Shawan Road and back while we’re still allowed to leave the house. The idea was simply to at least get the engine up to temperature, and give it enough of a drive that if the Diesel Particulate Filter (DPF) needed a cleaning cycle it could get a full one. I can always tell when it’s been doing that right when I turn it off because it smells like something’s burning. Which…it is. But it’s supposed to be.

My street is more full of parked cars this morning than last, which I guess is good. Out on the highway traffic was exceptionally light…nearly non-existent…which is also good. The big electronic traffic billboards were all telling us to Stay Home, and it seemed this morning that most people were.

I felt reasonably sure that I wasn’t causing any problems by taking the car out for a routine maintenance drive and back as I never left the car until I got back home. At some point we may be officially told not to leave our homes at all and then I don’t know what I’ll do about the car. You folks with all electric cars you can charge at home have it pretty good right now, though I suppose gasoline burners don’t suffer as much from just being parked for extended periods like diesels can.

by Bruce | Link | Comments Off on Tales From The Plague…(continued)

March 21st, 2020

Tales From The Plague…(continued)

Krugman this morning…

 

This is what I’ve been thinking the past few days. All week long the street has been full of parked cars during what are normally business hours. My neighbors on either side of me have to work. One is a nurse, the other works in a homeless shelter. Some neighbors further down are retired, but the rest normally drive to work in the morning. Last week they all stayed home. Just this morning my end of the street is nearly empty of cars. Saturday morning is a typical time to go grocery shopping. People at the other end still look like they’re staying in.

A friend posts on Facebook…

“My introvert gene is saying, ‘Now you know why I am here. I saved countless numbers of your ancestors from plague.” This is just another step in ongoing evolution.

Heh…yeah. It’s almost spooky how well I’m taking the new reality. My employer has mandated work from home for the time being, and I’m content to stay home, but I need to at least get out and take a walk around the block periodically. It’s good for my mental health though I’m sure, that I can still continue to do my usual workday work even if it’s here at home. Work from home is easy for me to do…mostly. I have an office laptop here at Casa del Garrett, with the secure VPN software installed, and I have good broadband internet via the Comcast borg. There’s coming a time however, when I will have to go into the office to do system testing that cannot be done remotely. But that is being deferred for now.

My introvert gene is coming in very handy now. I’m lucky in that my winter stocks are still pretty good and I don’t actually need to go shopping and won’t for weeks. I have a house with things to do, deferred housework, work in the art room, film to develop and scan. I recently subscribed to Disney Plus and Curiosity Channel.

Plus I am an only child, and we onlies are almost preternaturally good at keeping ourselves company. When I need human company for the duration, social networking is fine by me. It was a lifeline when I was a young gay man, and I was an early adopter. I can definitely get through this without going mad. But I worry what Krugman there is worrying about. We need to flatten the curve for now, as much as possible.

I’m a heart patient. I’m fine, it wasn’t nearly as serious as it could have been, and I’m taking my meds. But if my heart starts acting up again, it would be nice to have an opening at Union Memorial. I probably won’t need it considering how good I’m doing…the stents seem to be settling in nicely. But it is a worry.

by Bruce | Link | Comments Off on Tales From The Plague…(continued)

March 20th, 2020

Tales From The Plague…

This came across my Facebook news stream this morning…

7 Family Members Test Positive For Coronavirus, 4 Dead

I’m thinking this is probably how my family in Pennsylvania felt way back when that killer flu was starting to make its way among their neighbors. But this is a different world, with a Much better understanding of virology, and how to treat people who become sick. And there is an expectation we have today, that they probably did not, of a vaccine, even if it’s many months away.

But still…right now we are in a very not good place with this…

I’m so very lucky. I’ll go into detail about that later…I really need to use this space to document how things are going during the struggle to contain and work ourselves through the COVID-19 outbreak. But that I have a job that allows me to work remotely and keep drawing a paycheck and paying my bills is a big part of that luck. So many others aren’t in the situation I am, particularly restaurant and service workers who live paycheck to paycheck. Government needs to help them, but given our current political reality here in this country I have no idea what is going to happen to them and it makes me angry.

In the meantime, a couple good links to beat back despair: Here’s a good, sober, reasoned and hopeful outlook from the man who helped defeat smallpox what to expect next…

The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What’s Coming

And this speech by German Chancellor Merkel is a stunning example of leadership in a democracy. It is humane, logical, reasoned, and speaks to the heart and soul of her people. But also, to all of us, really, who believe in civilization, science, and the human status. I can’t help watching this and grieving for all we have lost here in the United States, as a culture of believers in the American Dream, and bearers of the torch of democracy and progress, since Reagan sold us on the shining city on the hill, where all that matters is getting yours and to hell with your neighbor.

There are subtitles for those of us who don’t speak German…I only know a few phrases. Watch, and feel your belief in the human status renewed. We don’t have a central government now that can speak to the spirit of mutual fellowship and duty within us, but we can at least take heart from those in other nations that do, as they once did back when we still stood for something worth fighting for…

 

 

by Bruce | Link | Comments Off on Tales From The Plague…

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